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The government has cut its forecast for the number of pupils in England’s schools in 2030 by 286,000 after projecting a much faster decline in school rolls.

There will be 7.22 million pupils aged 0-15 in state-funded schools in 2030, according to the latest .

This is 286,000 (3.8 per cent) fewer than the 7.50 million forecast by the DfE a .

The 2025 forecast predicted pupil numbers would fall by 5 per cent between 2025 and 2030, but the updated figures now forecast an 8.6 per cent reduction over the same period.

And from 2026 to 2031, the number of pupils is now expected to drop by 726,000 (9.3 per cent), from 7.81 million to 7.08 million.

Pupil rolls have been falling since 2019, and leaders have repeatedly warned of the impact on school funding, staffing and the future viability of schools, as funding is largely allocated on a per-pupil basis.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “We need an approach to school funding that supports schools experiencing falling rolls and recognises that trends can change over time - protecting existing staffing levels and seizing the opportunity to help schools offer smaller classes and deliver more targeted help for pupils who need it most.”

Primary pupils forecast cut by 184,000

Pupil numbers in nursery and primary schools are now forecast to fall by 473,000 over the next five years - the largest reduction across phases nationally.

There were 4.42 million pupils in these schools in 2026, but this number is projected to drop by 10.7 per cent by 2031.

The government now expects 4.02 million nursery and primary pupils in 2030, 184,000 fewer than forecast last year.

The DfE previously predicted a 6.7 per cent reduction between 2025 and 2030, but this has now been revised.

The number of children aged under 5 in education is expected to fall by 10.4 per cent, from 797,000 in 2026 to 714,000 in 2031.

This reflects lower birth numbers in 2023 and 2024, as well as lower migration assumptions.

Secondary numbers to drop twice as fast

Secondary schools are now expected to experience a significantly larger fall than was forecast last year.

Their numbers are now forecast to decline by 249,000 between 2026 and 2031, from 3.22 million to 2.97 million.

There will be 106,000 fewer secondary students in 2030 compared with the forecast made last year.

The DfE had previously expected secondary rolls to fall by 3 per cent between 2025 and 2030, but it now predicts a 6.3 per cent reduction.

Last year’s figures suggested secondary numbers would remain broadly stable until 2026 before beginning to decline slowly.

However, the latest school census showed the decline had already begun, as more students left secondary education than entered.

Special-school population rises

The trend will move in the opposite direction in special schools, with the number of pupils in the sector increasing by 4.8 per cent in 2026 to 178,000, continuing the growth recorded in recent years.

The number of pupils in special schools increased by 6 per cent per year from 2018 to 2022 and by around 5 per cent per year since 2023.

The population of children in special schools will peak in 2027-28, one year later than the previous projection, the forecasts show.

However, these projections do not take into account the changes that will come from the government’s reforms to the special educational needs and disabilities system, according to the DfE. The government is intending to ensure that mainstream schools are better able to meet the needs of pupils with SEND.

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