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'Pro-girl' gap in teachers' predicted A-level grades identified
Teachers often predict higher A-level grades for girls than boys, and this could be affecting students’ access to university courses, researchers warn
Teachers systematically predict lower A-level grades for boys relative to “observationally similar” girls who go on to get the same results, according to research for the .
The researchers argue that because these predicted grades are an “important signal in university admissions, such differences may influence the allocation of educational opportunities and students’ access to selective courses and institutions”.
Academics at the University of Cambridge and University of Bristol analysed data from more than 350,000 students in England and found a consistent “pro-girl” gap in teacher predictions across 10 A-level subjects.
Depending on the subject, girls were between three and 11 percentage points more likely than boys to have their grades overpredicted, and between 15 and 41 percentage points less likely to have them underpredicted.
Gender gap in predicted A-level grades
The researchers argue that the teachers did not deliberately favour girls, but that they may have picked up on characteristics such as motivation, diligence and classroom engagement when forming expectations about their future performance.
This could have created a “halo effect” whereby positive impressions about these students spilled over into predictions about their academic potential.
Lead author Dr Konstantina Maragkou, of the University of Cambridge’s faculty of education, suggested that the debate around predicted grades should be revisited.
“It is very unlikely that teachers deliberately predict better results for girls, but they may be relying on an impression of student characteristics which can lead to gendered predictions,” she said.
“We need to think carefully about how fair that is for young people when the stakes are so high.”
Analysing data from three university application cycles between 2017 and 2019 and comparing boys and girls with the same A-level outcomes, researchers identified a gender gap in predicted grades.
On average, girls received predictions between one tenth and one fifth of a grade higher than boys.
For example, girls were predicted, on average, around 0.17 of a grade higher in physics and 0.13 higher in sociology.
Dr Maragkou said such marginal differences can be enough to move a student across a grade boundary - for example, from a B to an A.
‘Difficult questions that deserve consideration’
The researchers tested whether the findings could be explained by other differences between boys and girls and accounted for by other possible factors, including socioeconomic background, ethnicity, class size and school attended - but the results remained unchanged in each case.
The authors stress that their explanation for the gender differences requires further research, but they note that official guidance states that “predicted grades should be independent of student behaviour or background”.
Dr Maragkou said that any attempt at reform of predicted grades should involve teachers, policymakers and researchers.
“Teachers are not supposed to base predicted grades on students’ character, but they are probably not doing so consciously,” she said.
“We also need to ask whether it is always wrong, conceptually, to consider broader qualities that affect academic success.
“These are difficult questions and they deserve careful consideration.”
Last summerboys received a larger share of top A-level grades, breaking a five‑year streak in which girls had the highest grade outcomes.
A-level results for 2026 will be made available to students on Thursday 13 August.
